“Can you answer? Yes I can. But what would be the answer to the answer man?”
–Grateful Dead
Does anyone have a clue what is going to happen in this years National League playoffs? The Cubs were the class of the league for the entire season but tailed off in August and September. The Dodgers were a .500 team, but they picked up the biggest difference maker at the trading deadline and never looked back. The Phillies overtook the tail spinning Mets to win the East—but that was as much a function of New York gagging in September as it was the Phillies putting the hammer down. And the Brewers, well, they weren’t even in the playoffs until the final hour of the season. Four teams: varying strengths, differing momentum, and all chasing one pennant. Here’s what we’re looking at for the two Divisional Series…
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies (Pitching Match-Ups)
In a short series, CC Sabathia and his 9-1 record in the National League should scare everyone in the playoffs. Pair him with a healthy Ben Sheets and not only do you have 600 pounds of pitching nastiness, but you also see how tough they could be to beat in a short series. However, Sabathia doesn’t go until Game 2 and Sheets isn’t healthy, so the Brew Crew could go down in 3 straight.
The Brewers tendency to streak (for good and bad) is in direct contrast to the Phillies. Of all the teams in the National League playoffs, Philadelphia is the team that we most likely know what we’re going to get. The Phillies possess a solid pitching that isn’t as spectacular as some of the other teams but they still get the job done. They’ll give you solid, consistent offense that won’t WOW as often as some other teams—but it wont disappear either. They’re just a very good team (I mean that in a good way). They aren’t the 1998 Yankees, but they’re certainly better than an average team. Sometimes, consistency seems to be undervalued by fans and media members alike. They are the epitome of a 90 win team to me.
If you made me chose the better team over 162 games, I’d pick the Phillies every day of the week and twice on Sunday (and I would have won 92-90, thank you very much). The difference is that in a short series, a dominant pitcher (or 2) can win a series. In a 5 game series, you would think the Phillies would have to deal with CC Sabathia twice—and there’s no way I’d bet against that guy this year. So if he pitches the way he’s capable of pitching, the Phillies are going to have to handle their business in Games 1, 3, and 4. We all know they don’t want it to go the distance. However, it looks like he’s going to go in Game 2 because he worked so late in the season to insure Milwaukee even made it to the playoffs. That leaves very little room for error, especially since it would be questionable if he could come back for a Game 5. That probably won’t matter…
Prediction: Phillies in 4
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs (Pitching Match-Ups)
There are so many different factors to this series that have nothing to do with the regular season. Derek Lowe, one of the best money pitchers of the last decade, goes in Game 1 for the Dodgers. He’s been hot down the stretch, so it wouldn’t be a stretch to see the Dodgers stealing the first game in Wrigley.
This is where the series gets interesting. Game 2 has two starting pitchers who are capable of dominating and single handedly carrying their team to victory. Is Big Z going to be able to come back and be the dominant starter that he was for most of the year or will we see the inconsistent, volatile guy we saw mid-season? Is Dolla Billz going to be able to step up and perform up to his potential in the clutch? He’s been growing into a very good starting pitcher since the middle of last season, but playoff baseball is a different animal. For the exact same reason I like D-Lowe in Game 1, I don’t know what to expect in Game 2.
Bigger than the baseball on the field, what is going to happen to the psyche of Cub players if they lose the first game at home? What is going to happen to the Cubs when they hit some adversity and start to feel that 800 lbs gorilla take up residence on their back? I’m sure all the headlines will talk about how the regular season was meaningless, they’ve already lost home field, and how this will be just like the last 100 years. There’s a lot of pressure to deal with this year in the Windy City—pressure the Dodgers just won’t have to deal with.
If the Cubbies can win Game 1, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a sweep here. But there are so many little playoff baseball nuggets that seem to play into L.A.’s hands: Who has more pressure? Cubs. Who has the better bullpen (bullpens are wildly important in the playoffs)? Dodgers. Who is the ONE player that can carry a team and has proven to come through under the bright lights of October? Manny Ramirez of the Dodgers.
Despite all of the regular season numbers to the contrary, I think this series might not be all Chicago. They had the biggest run differential in the Majors this year (+184) and the Dodgers are the worst of any playoff team (+52). But, when it comes down to it, I still think pitching wins championships and the Dodgers allowed the least amount of runs in the National League. Games are harder to win in October than they are to win in June. So with that in mind…
Dodgers in 5
Matt Reitz is the Editor-In-Chief here at ViewFromMySeats.com and former NHL Writer for ProHockeyTalk on NBCSports. When he’s not shoving a mic in the face of NHLers or explaining why home teams should wear white, he’s usually trying to figure out what song to play next on his iPod. It’s a never-ending job.
