Evgeni Nabokov and Playoff Failure

If you need any more proof that goaltending is the most important position in the NHL playoffs, please direct your attention to the San Jose Sharks vs. Anaheim Ducks series. Four games into the series, the #1 seeded Sharks are already in a 3-1 hole and look to continue their season over the weekend. Here’s a quick rundown of the goaltenders’ statistics through the first 4 games of the series.

Jonas Hiller has 2 shutouts and is making Randy Carlyle look like a genius (well, us as well), while Evgeni Nabokov has given up questionable goal after questionable goal. In the playoffs where the margin for error is razor thin, the difference between stellar goaltending and the way Nabokov is playing is the difference between preparing for the 2nd round and the 2nd tee. After 117 points, no one on the Sharks is ready to go golfing quite yet!

Hard to find photo: The puck is IN FRONT of Nabokov!

There are a couple of reasons for the huge difference in stats. First and foremost, Hiller has been playing out of his mind. Through the first round, you could make a strong case that he has been the most valuable player in the entire playoffs. The Sharks have outshot the Ducks by an average of 36 shots per game to 27. But here’s some perspective on how well he played in San Jose to get the Ducks off to a 2-0 lead: the Sharks had more shots in Game 2 (44 shots) than the Ducks had in the first 2 games (43) — COMBINED! Sometimes when a goaltender has a microscopic GAA, it’s because he’s only seeing minimal shots per game. When you notice that Hiller is seeing 36 shots per game, it just highlights his amazing play thus far.

In the post-season when the best goaltenders raise their game to another level, Nabokov’s career playoff numbers are average at best. His career winning percentage is under .500 (31-34) with a respectable 2.21 GAA and a .915 save percentage. In the regular season, those would be good numbers for any goaltender—but in the playoffs for a good team, they just aren’t good enough. How much do you think the Sharks wished they kept Miikka Kiprusoff when they had both in their system?

Any fan can make a case for the TEAM dominance of either the Sharks or the Ducks. The Sharks have controlled the play in the majority of the first 4 games; but the Ducks have had their share of Grade-A scoring chances. The Ducks have had the edge in the face off circles, while the Sharks have had the lead in hits. When you look at the Sharks team, only one player on their entire roster is a PLUS player. Not surprisingly, Rob Blake is a series worst -5 (that’s MINUS). But when it comes down to it, the only stat that really matters right now is 3-1; as in, 3 games to 1.

The truth is that in the playoffs, goaltending is more important than anything else. Of course, to go deep—you need the entire team to play well, including the goaltender. Here’s the way I look at it: a goaltender won’t single handedly win 16 games in the Stanley Cup playoffs, but he certainly can lose 4 all on his own. If the Sharks want to avoid that fatal 4th loss this weekend, the veteran Nabokov is going to have to start playing up to the young Hiller’s level. Anything less and San Jose will be looking at their President’s Trophy for the entire off season, wondering “what if.”