NFL Experts Should Follow Their Own Advice

You have to love the last few days before the NFL Draft. Even though the Draft is the lifeblood of any good team, there’s no event in sports that is more hyped with less substance. Hell, Mel Kiper Jr and Todd McShay have made their living off of making predictions that are right just about as often as you and me. It’s the reason why we went with a reader-controlled mock draft instead of just spewing what we thought we would happen. Let’s face it—it’s a crap shoot and no one knows what’s going to happen. But hey, they found their niche.

The most ridiculous part of this whole song-and-dance is the players that shoot up the boards in the last few days. I don’t know if it’s that the draft experts have ran out of things to say and just need to start MAKING THINGS UP, but some of this stuff is coming out of left field. Anyone that has been near sports radio or ESPN in the last few days knows that Mark Sanchez’s stock has gone through the roof. When he announced his intentions to enter the draft, there were mixed reviews whether he was making the right decision or not. Even his college coach warned that he was making a mistake. Yet with only hours leading up to the draft, the guy that only started for ONE season at USC has more buzz than Southern California Edison. My question is: why? He has a few good interviews, and he goes from a “questionable junior leaving school early” to the guy that multiple teams want to trade up to draft. Either the experts are trying to get more face time or there are some stupid NFL teams out there.

But more than that, it’s the blatant disregard for the facts that they put out that drives me crazy. Let me show you Scouts Inc.’s evaluation of a couple of Defensive Ends that are projected to be drafted in the 1st Round.

When you look at that breakdown, who would you take? Player 2 is average or better in every area, he’s exceptional in 4 areas, and he’s as good or better than Player 1 in EVERY SINGLE CATEGORY other than Run Stopper and Strength/Toughness (remember we’re talking about a defensive END, not a defensive TACKLE). So please tell me why they are all talking about how Player 1 would be the better prospect?

From normal 1st Rounder to Top 5 pick.... but why?

In case you haven’t figured it out (or haven’t clicked on the links), Player 1 is Tyson Jackson out of LSU and Player 2 is Everette Brown from Florida State. For most of the winter, the two were pretty close in various mock drafts, rankings and expert analysis. Now, they have Brown dropping towards the very end of the 1st round for no apparent reason whatsoever. Here’s what I know: Defensive Ends that are EXCEPTIONAL pass rushers, with EXCEPTIONAL durability and character that had EXCEPTIONAL production in college do not fall to the bottom of the 1st round (or even to the 2nd round).

But here’s the funny thing—on the eve of the draft, both of the big experts at ESPN have Jackson going in the Top 5. Kiper even has Jackson going at #3, BEFORE Aaron Curry. Are you kidding me? People have been talking about Curry as an organization changing linebacker. No offense, but Tyson Jackson wasn’t even a first team-SEC performer last season. So please, lets mix in a little perspective.

Of course, none of us will know tomorrow who was really a winner or loser in the draft. Hell, we probably won’t know for a few years which teams had a truly productive draft, whose was overhyped and whose was just plain awful. But here’s something I do know—I don’t trust the last minute changes in people’s opinions. You’ve had 4 months to formulate your opinions; there is no “breaking news” at this point. The players aren’t getting better or worse in the offseason. Stop it… stop trying to make yourselves more important than you are.

Thankfully, after this weekend’s draft, they’ll go away for the next 9 months. Thank God!