Grading the NFL Draft a week after it happens is crazy. We know that it takes 3 or 4 years to truly evaluate the players as they make the transition to the NFL. But what we CAN do is evaluate the asset management of some of the teams. It’s from this asset management point of view that we’re looking at the AFC West. Tyson Jackson, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Knowshon Moreno, Larry English and Robert Ayers all could prove to be productive NFL players. For me to sit here and tell you that they’re all going to be busts would be just as stupid as if I were to tell you that they’ll all be Pro Bowlers with 20 year careers. The truth is that we just won’t know for a while.
What we do know is the value each of these players had going INTO the draft on Saturday. It’s just a simple fact: Matthew Stafford had more value than Josh Freeman. Does that mean that Freeman will have a poor career; or that it will even be less than Stafford’s career? Absolutely not. None of us really know for sure. But if the Lions took Freeman at #1, then we’d all agree that they could have traded the pick and taken the guy they wanted later in the draft. It’s common sense. Just because you have $1,000 in your pocket, it doesn’t mean that you’ll pay that much for a pair of Nikes. Even if those are the shoes you REALLY want, you don’t pay a thousand bucks just because you have that much. You spend what they’re worth, then you use the money left over to get MORE stuff. It’s through this lens that we look at the 2009 NFL Draft for the AFC West teams. This lesson in common sense seems like something they all could learn!
Is Tyson Jackson the next Richard Seymour? The Chiefs sure hope so!
The Kansas City Chiefs decided to select Tyson Jackson from LSU with the 3rd overall pick; even when Aaron Curry was on the board. They broke a record for fewest team sacks—so they went out and drafted a defensive end that isn’t very good at rushing the quarterback. Drafting a Defensive End would be a good move; but I think they’re missing the point as to why a DE would be a good move. I’m always a little hesitant to get on board with someone that moves up the mock drafts so quickly in the last few weeks preceding the draft.
The comparison I keep hearing is Richard Seymour from the Patriots. Maybe it’s the New England connection with Scott Pioli, but they better hope that Jackson turns in a career like Seymour. Don’t get me wrong, he’s a valuable guy for a great organization; he’s just not the kind of IMPACT player that the Chiefs could have had at #3. Even the defensive TACKLE that Kansas City chose last year (Glenn Dorsey) is more of an impact guy. If I’m picking a defensive end with a Top 5 pick, I want a guy like Mario Williams, Demarcus Ware or Julius Peppers—a difference maker. Not Richard Seymour.
Jackson may prove to be just as effective as Seymour in the pros (although I doubt it) in a few years. But from an asset/value perspective, they easily could have traded the pick to someone that desperately wanted the uber-talented Curry and accumulated additional draft picks. Let’s be honest, for a team that has picked in the Top 5 the last couple of years, they have more than just one hole on their roster. Regardless, they went with their man—and they probably did it a few picks too high.
Then we have the Raiders picking up Darrius Heyward-Bey at #7. Again, I’m not going to pretend like I know more than GMs. Heyward-Bey has ALL of the makings to be a Combine Kid and completely bust in the NFL, but only time will tell. No, the reason we can judge this pick as a FAIL today is because they used the 7th pick in the draft on him. They easily could have traded back a few picks, assemble a few additional assets (which we know they could use), and still drafted their man. Instead, they used the #7 pick on a guy that most experts had listed as the 4th best guy at his position in the draft. I know everyone thinks that Michael Crabtree was the best receiver available in the draft (and I tend to agree); but we’re not going to get into who’s better. It’s obviously way too early to tell—and time has a way of sorting these types of things out. But as far as value goes for the #7 pick, the Raiders could have done a few different things with the pick, accumulated extra picks and still got their man.
Knowshon Moreno is going to be a good player in the NFL. He has the combination of speed, tough running style and athleticism that reminds me of Ronnie Brown in Miami. But with about 89723987 running backs on the roster that they signed, do they really need another? The Broncos organization has prided itself on being able to plug any running back in, no matter where they were drafted, and sit back and watch the production roll in.
Moreno will be taking handoffs from Correll Buckhalter, getting lead blocks from Peyton Hillis and throwing to Selvin Young
On a team that has so many glaring weaknesses (quarterback, the entire defense and QUARTERBACK!), how do you go to a position that has already been addressed multiple times this offseason? J.J. Arrington, LaMont Jordan and Correll Buckhalter have all been brought in as free agents to join a stable of running backs that includes holdovers Selvin Young, Ryan Torain and Peyton Hillis. That’s 6 running backs they had BEFORE the draft; 7 now that you add Moreno. I’m not sure what kind of offense that the Broncos plan to run next season without Cutler, but I’m intrigued what 7 running backs will look like! Was McDaniels not aware that their defense completely sucked last year?
McDaniels never had that stand out 1st round running back in New England—no we’re not counting Lawrence Maroney as “elite.” Denver used the 1st round pick they received in the Jay Cutler deal to draft defensive end Robert Ayers. Ayers will undoubtedly address one of their needs on defense; but take the 2 picks as a whole and we can see the problem with their 1st round. After trading Cutler, the Broncos don’t have a quarterback of the future. We can all agree that Kyle Orton isn’t going to be the long term answer for a decade (like Cutler was), so shouldn’t they bring in someone that can be groomed for the role? They may have thought that Josh Freeman was going to drop to #18 (Tampa traded up to snag him at #17), but then they would have picked Moreno and a quarterback—thus leaving the defensive problems completely unresolved. Moreno and Ayers both look the part of good NFL players—but they completely missed on their most glaring need. I guess they did address the quarterback position. But if the Broncos organization is going to place the future of the position at the feet of 6th round draft pick Tom Brandstater (Fresno State), then it might be a difficult next few years in the Mile High City.
As a side note, the Broncos managed to already screw up their 1st round for NEXT season as well. When the traded up in the 2nd round to pick up Alphonso Smith, they traded their 1st round pick next season to the Seattle Seahawks. Even though they have 2 first round picks, the pick is not conditional and will be Denver’s pick. As preseason predictions have the Bears as a possible Super Bowl contender while the Broncos fight to reach .500, the price to move up in the 2nd round was steep. The least McDaniels could have done was protect next year’s 1st round pick to make sure they kept the highest pick—but decided not to. When questioned about why they would let go of a possible Top 10 pick next year, here was McDaniels’ uncomforting, cavalier response:
“We felt like, that’s OK, we’ll roll the dice,” –Colorado Springs Gazettte
Denver Broncos fans: this is your future.
The San Diego Chargers pick is a little trickier. AJ Smith has proven over the years that he knows exactly what he’s doing with the Chargers when it comes to Draft Day. But here’s the thing—I’m always wary of the guys that climb the draft late in the game (see Tyson Jackson above or again here). In fact, I think English is a good player that in ways reminds me of another Charger: Shaun Phillips.
You have to admit, the guy usually knows what he's doing
Again, it’s not that the Chargers picked Larry English—it’s where they picked him. I actually did a lot of research about English because he was in the mix for someone’s SECOND round pick. As the Draft got closer and closer, he moved up in so many mock drafts and so many experts were giving him love, he became research for teams picking in the late FIRST round. Then draft day comes and he’s picked in the MIDDLE of the 1st round. Did he magically produce more sacks in the last few weeks before the draft? Did he shave .1 second off of his 40 time? Did he suddenly gain 15 pounds of muscle so he could bench 900 pounds 17 times?
The truth of the matter is that NOTHING changed about Larry English in the last few weeks. The only thing that happened was that his agent did a hell of a sales job. I will give credit to the Chargers for finding a player they liked, and selecting him before anyone else. Again, I don’t claim to be the guy that knows everything about everyone. That’s Mel Kiper Jr. No, I just question taking a guy that moved up so quickly that late.
Two years ago, the Chargers were 14-2 and the team to beat in the playoffs. Last season, a team that was basically made up of the same players battled through injuries to win the division with an 8-8 record. Assuming that the team gets back to normal this season (LT and Merriman return to form), the Chargers should be better than the .500 team we saw last season. The biggest problem last season was the pass rush—which is undoubtedly why AJ Smith went with English. But they already have bookend guys with Shaun Phillips and Shawne Merriman. To me, that brings up some bigger questions. Is Merriman recovery from his knee injury progressing slower than anticipated? Did the Chargers pick English because Shaun Phillips can’t stop getting arrested?
Maybe AJ Smith knows something that we don’t—he’s a guy that consistently gets the most value for his picks. To be honest, I think he could have gotten more; Smith addressed a need and provided depth at the position that caused the Chargers pass defense to be 31st in the NFL. At the end of the day, San Diego did better with their asset management in the 1st round than any of the other AFC West teams. But that’s not saying much—that’s like saying they are the coolest kid at Band Camp. I mean, look at the competition.
When you take a look back at what the AFC West teams did with their 1st round picks this year, it’s pretty easy to see why the divisional champion last season was only .500. The Raiders and the Broncos picks had me confused, then I was angry for their fans and I’ve finally settled on “pity.” The Chiefs fell in love with a guy that plays the right position, but doesn’t have the most important skill that the Chiefs desperately need (pass rushing). The Chargers were OK when they reached for Larry English at #16—the quintessential “C” grade when all of these pundits start doing their grades. I guess OK sounds pretty good when everything around you is awful.
Matt Reitz
Matt Reitz is an NHL Writer for ProHockeyTalk on NBCSports and the Editor-In-Chief here at ViewFromMySeats.com. When he's not shoving a mic in the face of NHLers or explaining why home teams should wear white, he's usually trying to figure out what song to play next on his iPod. It's a never-ending job.
