I was checking out the odds in Vegas last weekend, one of the NHL numbers that stood out to me revolved around the Washington Capitals. The sports book that I found myself in had the Caps at 10 to 1 to win the Stanley Cup. It wasn’t quite as ridiculous as the number of people betting on horse racing at 11:00am on a Monday, but still it struck me as a number that was a little out of line with reality.
We all know that you damn well better have a good (or great) goaltender if you want to win the Cup. Enter Seymon Varlamov and his six career regular season appearances. Before last year’s playoff performance, he was a virtual unknown quantity that was pegged as the Caps Goaltender of the Future. After Jose Theodore’s face-flop in the first two games against the Rangers, “Goaltender of the Future” turned into “Goaltender of the Now.”
Pronounced: Var-LA-mov
He was such an unknown last season that Mike Emrick was constantly saying his name wrong. I don’t know which was more painful: hearing him say it wrong when I knew how it was supposed to be pronounced or hearing Joe Beninati trying SO hard to make sure he put the emphasis on the right syllable throughout the game. It was like me trying to say Happy Birthday in Cantonese—I can say it right, but everyone laughs at me because it takes so much effort. Can you imagine announcers mispronouncing Kiprusoff or Brodeur? Just to screw with people, now he wants to be known as Semyon, not “Simeon.” I can’t wait to see announcers stumble over his first and last name this season!
I’m not trying to marginalize his performance in the playoffs, but is that the kind of guy that you’d put money on to win the most prestigious trophy in all of sports?
The Capitals are placing their hopes next season on a guy that has twice as many appearances in 3 weeks of the playoffs as he did in his entire career. He didn’t start consecutive games until Games 3 and 4 of the 1st round of last year’s playoffs against the Rangers. I know that he’s the goaltender of the future in Washington, but are they ready to hand over the keys to the franchise to the young, unproven goaltender? I don’t care how many goals Ovechkin and Semin score—if they don’t have anyone to STOP the puck; they’re going to have some problems!
If you’re willing to throw down some money at 10/1 for the Caps to win the Cup, then you better be prepared to be betting on offense. All of the young guns they have with Ovechkin, Alexander Semin, Mike Green and Nicklas Backstrom are undoubtedly the strength of their team. They’ve been able to capture back-to-back Southeast Division crowns, but those teams have only one a grand total of 1 playoff series over the last two years.
We all know that you HAVE to have goaltending if you want to be successful in the playoffs. For all the young superstars the Penguins have on their roster, Marc Andre Fleury came up big in the big games as well. The gold-standard for offensive machines is the 1980’s Edmonton Oilers. If you ask Wayne Gretzky who the best goalie he ever saw was, he’d tell you Grant Fuhr (sans Coke). Ok, I made that up. Not the Gretzky part—the Fuhr part. For all we know, he was coked up for his entire playing career. I mean, it WAS the 80’s.
Simeon Varlamov does have a few things working in his favor to help him have a productive season next year. First, David Steckel is developing into a very nice 3rd line center. Bruce Boudreau has had him developing into a shut-down center to compliment all of the high flying forwards on the top two lines. With winning 56.3% of his draws, Steckel has become one of the best players in the faceoff circle (7th in the NHL last season). Having a guy that can win draws in the defensive zone and help slow down opponents’ superstars will do nothing but help the young netminder get his feet under him.
Any little bit of defense helps...
Another factor that Varlamov has working in his favor is the young defensemen in the Capitals organization that look like they’ll make the jump to the NHL next season. Both Karl Alzner and John Carlson have been waiting in the wings for the last few years and could very well make the big club out of training camp this season. They have the talent, but like Varlamov, they don’t have the experience. Down the road, both players should serve to help strengthen the blueline in Washington for years to come. But the beginning of next season may provide a few growing pains for the new defensemen. Will that hurt Varlamov’s confidence?
Something else to think about is the defensive quality of some of the defensemen for the Capitals. Mike Green is an excellent offensive defenseman—but he’s not the shut down type defenseman on the blueline that Zdeno Chara is. There’s a reason that the 9 foot wonder won the Norris and the mohawked one was only a finalist. So even though he’s a big, marquee name, he’s not going to be the kind of defenseman that Varlamov can depend on. Similarly, Tom Poti has been in the league for awhile—but it’s not his defensive ability that earns him his money. Is Varlamov going to be able to thrive behind a defense that has John Erskine and Jeff Schultz doing the heavy lifting?
Only time will tell if Simeon Varlamov lives up to the high expectations he created for himself with last year’s playoff run. But if the Washington Capitals want to fulfill their Stanley Cup aspirations next season, not even Alexander Ovechkin will be as important. I have no problem kickin’ down some money on the Caps—you’re just going to have to give me better odds than 10 to 1.
(Disclaimer: VFMS strongly encourages gambling on anything and everything hockey related. However, you may want to use your own brain when betting with your own money.)
Matt Reitz
Matt Reitz is an NHL Writer for ProHockeyTalk on NBCSports and the Editor-In-Chief here at ViewFromMySeats.com. When he's not shoving a mic in the face of NHLers or explaining why home teams should wear white, he's usually trying to figure out what song to play next on his iPod. It's a never-ending job.
