The media is oversaturated with coverage of every sport, from every traditional angle, every hour of every day. This leads to crazy ideas on every subject with every writer, at some point, taking an unintuitive, nonsensical opinion on something just to be noticed. It seems because Marian Gaborik and the Rangers are off to a tremendous start, the newest idea is the contract Gaborik signed was a good one. The Rangers’ woeful offense of last season seems to be gone with the addition of Gaborik. In combination with the exceptional goaltending of Henrik Lundqvist, a good defensive squad, and a better system implemented by new head coach John Tortarella the Rangers are shaping up as a top team in the East.
When he's healthy, he's good. Damn good.
However, the New York Rangers were naïve and desperate in signing Marian Gaborik to a long-term contract. He most certainly has world-class skills but his injury history alone dictated either a long-term deal based mostly on incentives or a short-term deal. Simply because his first eleven games have been great does not mean he’s earned his keep and validated the risk the Rangers took in signing him.
National Hockey League games are physical affairs even for skilled players who don’t make their money in the corners. They get hit with sticks, other players, and sometimes pucks. They push their muscles and minds in a competitive league where every regular season game holds importance and every point is precious. These demands mean most players do not last more than five years according to some sources. Long-term contracts in the salary cap era are simply folly in almost all cases. Even long-term deals for up-and-coming superstars aren’t the best idea. But signing oft-injured players to these long-term deals is salary-cap suicide.
Marian Gaborik’s skill set is second to none. In the seventeen games he was able to play in the 2008-09 season he scored 23 points and 13 goals. His speed, hands and shot are seductive for any GM in need of world-class skill on a wing. However, Marian Gaborik has one fatal flaw. He hasn’t stayed healthy for an entire year in quite some time. Since 2005-06 he has played no more than 77 games, doing that once, while in the other three seasons playing 65, 48, and 17 games. In the salary cap era where a GM must maximize the value for every dollar spent, having your best winger for 60 games out of a year just does not cut it. In Gaborik’s case, in some of his recent seasons, 60 games is an optimistic estimate. Further, from what I’ve seen with the Kings’, having an injury-prone star takes a major emotional and psychological on the team. And, though not necessarily a factor in a GM’s thinking, it takes a major toll on fans.
Look at Gabby-- he's so tough.
Knowing all of these things its unfathomable how the Rangers could have extended the contract offer they did to the speedy Slovakian. Now, supposedly doctors found some hip issues with Gaborik, which were major contributors to his groin problems. Supposedly they fixed those issues and Gaborik’s troublesome groin might be far less prevalent or gone completely. Further, earlier in his career he did string together three seaons where he played no less than 71 games. Its possible Gaborik plays 70 or more games with the Rangers and Gaborik’s salary is offset in the short term with the trade of Scott Gomez. That all said, over five years, at 7.5 million dollars he’s still at best a major gamble. If he is injured the Rangers have no cap space to bring in a player near Gaborik’s caliber. They are up against the cap this year. They have ten million in space next year but only have 15 players under contract. Gaborik, with his high price tag is also practically unmovable. That’s not even taking into account possible movements in the salary cap downward. If the cap moves lower in the next few years Gaborik could easily represent more than 13% of the entire payroll of the Rangers.
As a Kings’ fan these are all things I battled with personally. I wanted a winger of Gaborik’s skill-set flanking Anze Kopitar. I’ve seen him dismantle the Kings time after time. I would like him on my side for once. However, overpaying for player whose place in the lineup cannot be guaranteed is a horrible idea. Take, for example, Rick DiPietro’s long-term deal of 15 years at 4.5 million per year. He had three consecutive 60+ start years, had never shown much in the way of being injured in the NHL and yet he’s played 3 games since the 2008-09 season. Sometimes injuries happen and players are out for years with no history whatsoever. Now, when you have a player whose injury history is well-defined and well-documented, how do you sign him for 5 years at such a high, guaranteed dollar amount? With that kind of deal it’s not far-fetched to think the Rangers were simply bidding against themselves for the services of Gaborik. At this point Gaborik makes more than Anze Kopitar, Mike Richards, almost as much as Chris Pronger, Sidney Crosby, and Evgeni Malkin.
What I find even more peculiar is how little the media seems to agree with me. They lauded praise on the Rangers for signing a dynamic winger without a thought to who that winger actually was. This is where I can only imagine they wanted to take a contrarian’s perspective to attract readers or because their editor demanded it of them. Now with the Rangers jumping out to an exceptional start they heaped even more praise on the Rangers signing, even calling the current start vindication, which is simply asinine. Gaborik’s signing can’t be judged by 11 games given his history and really that’s what this all comes down to. Gaborik’s contract can only be vindicated if he plays 60 or more games in all five seasons. Not until the end of Gaborik’s contract can it be assessed, making its signing ridiculous for another reason. Nothing in the NHL can be guaranteed — but Gaborik missing chunks of time with an injury is as close as it gets.
(Editor’s Note: Gaborik left last night’s game against the Coyotes, but it doesn’t appear to be anything major.)
