It’s never a good idea to be scared of what “could be.” Whether we’re following our favorite hockey team or looking at our own future, circumstances change and variables are altered so much, it’s pointless to worry about things that might not even become a problem. But right now, there are four little words that should scare the hell out of every Dallas Stars fan: James. Neal. Offer. Sheet.
Stars’ Internal Budget
Any diehard Stars fan will tell you the salary cap is completely irrelevant in Big D right now. Instead of worrying about what the league currently allows teams to pay its players, fans know the Stars are limited to what the Hicks Group is willing to spend on payroll. While most of the contenders are spending up to the $59.4 million cap limit, the Dallas Stars organization has an internal budget of $45 million per season. And don’t look now, but the Stars are at $46.5 million and still need a few more players to round out their team. Mark Stepneski is on the same page:
“You do the math. They can’t fit all those players in a 23-man roster and they aren’t going to get everybody signed without going over $45 million in salary for the roster. In other words, they are going to have to do some tweaking or somebody is going to end up going to the minors and getting exposed to waivers.” –Mark Stepneski (Andrew’s Dallas Stars Blog)
Even though they’re $13+ million under the salary cap, they could be backed into the same type of situation as the Blackhawks were with Niklas Hjalmarsson. The Sharks forced the Hawks’ hand and have potentially made them choose between Hjalmarsson and Antti Niemi (or another roster player). Since the Blackhawks were so close to the cap, they were vulnerable and the Sharks took advantage of the situation.
Usually, offer sheets aren’t that big of a concern. Not only are they rarely successful (only Dustin Penner’s to Edmonton wasn’t matched), but there’s a certain stigma against pursuing restricted free-agents via offer sheets around the league. The difference here is the Sharks offer broke the seal on offer sheets to RFAs pretty early in the summer. Doug Wilson gave a perfect example of how to use offer sheets as a win-win situation. Either he gets his guy or puts an opponent in an undesirable position.
Here’s where it gets interesting. If a team wants to press the Stars’ hand, they can offer a 4 or 5-year contract for $3 million per season. Neal would love a contract like that because at the end of a 5-year contract, he hits unrestricted free agency without having to sign another RFA contract. Worse yet for the Stars, the only compensation for a contract like that would be a 2nd round draft pick—which is peanuts for a guy like James Neal. If it were value alone, there’s no way the Stars let one of their own walk for a 2nd round draft pick. But in terms of actual dollars, GM Joe Nieuwendyk’s hands could be tied.
But that doesn’t take into account the entire story. Just like the Chicago Blackhawks had salary problems, so do the Dallas Stars. But what makes the Stars situation so much more unique is that their constraints are a self-imposed budget and the PR mess that would follow if the Stars lost Neal. The perception wouldn’t be that they couldn’t keep him—it would be that they were unwilling to keep him. It’s a subtle point, but it’s a HUGE difference when you’re asking for big money for those seats on the blue line.
What’s he worth?
Obviously, the jumping off point is to look at some comparables that will factor into any contract. I’ve included the contract offer from the Ducks that Bobby Ryan has turned down as a comparable—mostly to give a ceiling to this year’s RFA crop.
| Player | Contract |
| Bobby Ryan | 5 yr, $25M ($5m cap) |
| Ryan Callahan | 2 yr, $4.6M ($2.3m cap) |
| Kris Versteeg | 3 yr, $9.25M ($3.1 cap) |
| Joe Pavelski | 4 yr, $16M ($4m cap) |
| Woltek Wolski | 2 yr, $7.6M ($3.8m cap) |
| David Perron | 2 yr, $4.3M ($2.2m cap) |
The Stars would love to sign him to a 2-year deal in the $2.5 million per season range. That gives him a chance to earn a bigger payday with his next contract and serves as a “bridge” contract before unrestricted free-agency. Two years ago the Stars negotiated a similar contract with Loui Eriksson (2 years, just shy of $2 million per season). After his production continued to impress, the Stars rewarded him with a 6-year extension that should keep his entire town in Sweden comfortable for a while.
This situation really goes back to the whole concept of the “second contract” that Brian Burke talked about a few years ago. In the wake of the Dustin Penner offer sheet, he talked about how the contract was bad for the game because it had the potential to eliminate the “second contract” from the NHL. Before Penner, players had their entry-level deals, a second contract that took them up to unrestricted free agency, and then they got their big payday. When Kevin Lowe offered Thomas Vanek a huge contract (and later Penner), the young players were jumping from entry level numbers to a substantial contract.
“We’re not afraid of an offer sheet… I think that threat has been there. We can’t conduct how we want to put the team together in the fear of an offer sheet being thrown at us. James Neal we fully anticipate will be on our team and that’s what we’re looking at.” –Joe Nieuwendyk (via Dallas Sports Fans)
This is where the rubber meets the road for Neal and Co. While the Stars would like a 2-year contract for Neal to earn his bigger payday, James Neal would like to start cashing in on his production now. If another team was willing to give him a longer-term deal, the Stars may be unwilling to match. Worse yet, if it’s a longer term deal that is front loaded, the Stars brass may be unable to match.
Both sides look like they’re digging in. It looks like the Neal camp could be content to take this into training camp and even beyond if they can’t find something more equitable for both sides. On the other hand, the Stars simply don’t have the luxury of throwing money around like Donald Trump because they already have budget problems to deal with. If you believe that the Hicks Group is going to hold firm on their internal budget (which most people do), then every dollar paid to Neal is going to have to be removed somewhere else.
What kind of player do you get with Neal?
When looking at last season, you have to break up Neal’s production into two separate categories: pre-suspension and post-suspension. Last year he started the season off looking like the kind of player the Stars could build their future around. Through the first 19 games of the season, he had 11 goals and 22 points. But then, there was the suspension for his hit on Derek Dorsett that planted the Blue Jackets forward face first into the glass. Here’s a refresher for anyone that needs it—Neal received 2 games for his troubles.
Neal slumped when he came back and was never really the same player as before. Before the hit, he was averaging over a point per game and was on pace to approach 50 goals for the season. Sure, that’s higher than anyone would have expected over the course of the season, but Stars fans certainly had visions of a 22-year-old power forward who could be a 35-40 goal scorer.
Unfortunately, the production was on a different level when he came back. In the 56 games after the suspension, he only had 16 goals and 33 points. That’s much more Brendan Morrow-type production than Patrick Marleau. Nothing against Brendan Morrow, but he’s not putting up the kinds of numbers that Neal was on pace to put on the stat sheet.
This is something that will probably play out over the course of the summer. We know that Maple Leafs fans would love to see him up in Toronto, just like fans in 29 other cities would love to have him on their roster, as well. By offering up $3 million per season (and only a 2nd round pick), teams should be lining up for that kind of deal.
But what happens if a team comes in and offers MORE than $3.1 million? In that case, the compensation bumps up to a 1st and 3rd round draft pick in next year’s draft. Would that change the Stars’ thought process? It would certainly soften the blow of losing one of their best, young players.
At this point, would the decision even be the Stars’ to make? It certainly looks like if an opponent extends an offer sheet with more of the money upfront, the Stars would be a reactive player in the process. Whatever the case, it sucks that the Stars ownership has team in this position. Forget that—it sucks that they have the fans in this position.
Matt Reitz is the Editor-In-Chief here at ViewFromMySeats.com and former NHL Writer for ProHockeyTalk on NBCSports. When he’s not shoving a mic in the face of NHLers or explaining why home teams should wear white, he’s usually trying to figure out what song to play next on his iPod. It’s a never-ending job.
