NHL teams are rapidly approaching the halfway point of the 82-game season and we’re getting to the point where we know exactly how good most teams around the league are going to be. Some teams are destroying all preseason expectations, while some teams are just destroying their fans’ hopes and dreams. It seemed like a good time to stop and take a look at the standings in-depth to see if we could figure out what the heck is going on with the NHL this year.

We decided to project the records of all 30 teams through the end of the season. To come up with our projections, we took into account each team, their effectiveness both at home and on the road, and how many games they have left. First and foremost, here are the projections for all 30 teams, as well as their ranking within each conference.

Take a look at all the numbers we put together and then let us know what stats stick out to you. Do you see any trends here that you didn’t expect to see? Anything that makes you think you have the 2nd half figured out?

Eastern Conference Projections

	Team	Conf	Games Played	Goal Diff	Wins	Current Points	Proj Total Points
1	PHI	East	35	30	22	49	116
2	PIT	East	34	31	22	46	111
3	TBL	East	33	-5	19	42	108
4	ATL	East	36	13	19	43	98
5	WAS	East	36	9	20	44	98
6	BOS	East	32	21	17	38	98
7	NYR	East	35	14	20	41	96
8	MTL	East	34	12	19	40	94
9	CAR	East	32	-9	15	34	88
10	FLA	East	31	7	15	30	81
11	BUF	East	34	-8	14	32	77
12	OTT	East	35	-25	14	32	75
13	TOR	East	33	-27	12	28	68
14	NJ	East	33	-44	9	20	51
15	NYI	East	30	-39	6	18	50

Western Conference Projections

	Team	Conf	Games Played	Goal Diff	Wins	Current Points	Proj Total Points
1	DET	West	32	17	20	44	112
2	VAN	West	31	23	19	42	111
3	DAL	West	34	8	21	45	109
4	LA	West	32	20	19	39	104
5	NAS	West	32	4	17	40	103
6	COL	West	34	11	19	42	102
7	SJ	West	34	7	18	41	99
8	PHX	West	32	-4	15	37	95
9	STL	West	33	-7	16	37	93
10	CLB	West	33	-6	17	37	92
11	CHI	West	35	8	18	39	92
12	ANA	West	38	-13	18	40	87
13	MIN	West	32	-12	15	34	87
14	EDM	West	32	-25	12	29	74
15	CGY	West	35	-11	14	31	74

Some of the findings aren’t really all that surprising. We don’t need formulas or spreadsheets to tell us that the Philadelphia Flyers, Detroit Red Wings, and Pittsburgh Penguins are good teams. But did you know that the Vancouver Canucks are on pace to have as many points as the Pittsburgh Penguins (111)? Maybe it’s because their games start at 10:30pm ET or maybe it’s because they don’t have Sidney Crosby scoring in 908723 straight games, but somehow the Canucks have flown under the radar compared to the other elite teams. Just wait until they play a few more games and shoot up the overall standings. People like Mike Brophy will have an increasingly difficult time burying them in their power rankings.

As it stands right now, the average team has 17 wins in 33 games and has accumulated 37 points. In other words, your average team thus far is the Columbus Blue Jackets. Yes, really.

Something else to take into account is the goal differential each team has through 35 games or so. It’s pretty obvious that teams that consistently score more than their opponents over a long period of time will win more games than those that don’t. It’s not really rocket surgery. Of course winning a game 1-0 and 5-0 really doesn’t count for anything extra in the standings—thus it’s not an exact science. But for the most part, the past has shown us that goal differential is a very good predictor of the future. With that in mind, here are the differentials for each team in the NHL (normalized in regards to games played). Obviously, if you take the average of all 30 teams, it breaks down to 0.00. There’s your reference point to know if your team is doing well or not!

Goal Differential (Per Game)

	Team	Conf	Games Played	Goal Diff	Wins	Pts	Goal Diff per Game
1	PIT	East	34	31	22	46	0.91
2	PHI	East	35	30	22	49	0.86
3	VAN	West	31	23	19	42	0.74
4	BOS	East	32	21	17	38	0.66
5	LA	West	32	20	19	39	0.63
6	DET	West	32	17	20	44	0.53
7	NYR	East	35	14	20	41	0.40
8	ATL	East	36	13	19	43	0.36
9	MTL	East	34	12	19	40	0.35
10	COL	West	34	11	19	42	0.32
11	WAS	East	36	9	20	44	0.25
12	DAL	West	34	8	21	45	0.24
13	CHI	West	35	8	18	39	0.23
14	FLA	East	31	7	15	30	0.23
15	SJ	West	34	7	18	41	0.21
16	NAS	West	32	4	17	40	0.13
17	PHX	West	32	-4	15	37	-0.13
18	TBL	East	33	-5	19	42	-0.15
19	CLB	West	33	-6	17	37	-0.18
20	STL	West	33	-7	16	37	-0.21
21	BUF	East	34	-8	14	32	-0.24
22	CAR	East	32	-9	15	34	-0.28
23	CGY	West	35	-11	14	31	-0.31
24	ANA	West	38	-13	18	40	-0.34
25	MIN	West	32	-12	15	34	-0.38
26	OTT	East	35	-25	14	32	-0.71
27	EDM	West	32	-25	12	29	-0.78
28	TOR	East	33	-27	12	28	-0.82
29	NYI	East	30	-39	6	18	-1.30
30	NJ	East	33	-44	9	20	-1.33

Predictably, the Penguins, Flyers, Canucks, and Kings are up near the top of the league. The Boston Bruins also show that they’ve been one of the best teams in the league—but then again, a team will have a great goal differential when their goaltender never seems to give up any goals. Just as predictably, the Oilers, Maple Leafs, Islanders, and Devils are all at the bottom of the list. There’s a reason why people will use this measure to predict the rest of the season. Good teams do well, bad teams do poorly.

As interesting as the stat can be, it is an imperfect measure. Take a team like the Nashville Predators. They’re currently in the 6th spot in the Western Conference, they’re projected to earn 103 points, yet they still are in the bottom half of the NHL when it comes to this measure.

Regardless of statistics, we shouldn’t be a surprised that the Predators are performing well on the ice. Midway through December, they’re 1 of only 5 teams that had 100+ points last season and are on pace to do so again this year.

Team	Conf	Games Played	Goal Diff	Wins	Pts	Proj Total Pts	Last Year Total Points
DET	West	32	17	20	44	112	102
PIT	East	34	31	22	46	111	101
VAN	West	31	23	19	42	111	103
LA	West	32	20	19	39	104	101
NAS	West	32	4	17	40	103	100

Consistency is one thing, but improvement is quite another. The Predators are only marginally on pace for a better season thus far—but with their record, consistency is fine. When a team like the Ducks is rocking in the 87 point neighborhood, the last thing they want is consistency between seasons. They’re looking for improvement. With that in mind, here are the Top 5 teams in terms of improvement.

10 Most Improved Teams

	Team	Conf	Games Played	Goal Diff	Wins	Pts	Proj Total Pts	Last Year Total Points	Difference (Last Yr to This Yr)
T1	PHI	East	35	30	22	49	116	88	28
T1	TBL	East	33	-5	19	42	108	80	28
3	DAL	West	34	8	21	45	109	88	21
4	ATL	East	36	13	19	43	98	83	15
5	CLB	West	33	-6	17	37	92	79	13
6	EDM	West	32	-25	12	29	74	62	12
T7	PIT	East	34	31	22	46	111	101	10
T7	DET	West	32	17	20	44	112	102	10
9	NYR	East	35	14	20	41	96	87	9
T10	CAR	East	32	-9	15	34	88	80	8
T10	VAN	West	31	23	19	42	111	103	8

On the flip side, not everyone is improving this season. Some teams are having problems with painful rebuilds, some set an impossible standard last season, and others went out and signed Ilya Kovalchuk for 89% of their salary cap space during the offseason. Here are the 5 teams that have slipped the most this season.

5 Teams Struggling Compared to Last Year

	Team	Conf	Games Played	Goal Diff	Wins	Pts	Proj Total Pts	Last Year Total Points	Difference (Last Yr to This Yr)
26	CHI	West	35	8	18	39	92	112	-20
27	BUF	East	34	-8	14	32	77	100	-23
28	WAS	East	36	9	20	44	98	121	-23
29	NYI	East	30	-39	6	18	50	79	-29
30	NJ	East	33	-44	9	20	51	103	-52

One of the biggest coach clichés in hockey is “we have to take care of business at home.” Whether it’s the energy of the crowd, the last line change, or the advantage in the faceoff circle, most teams are better at home than they are on the road. When we were factoring in projections, we took into account each team’s schedule, how many games they’ve played at home, and the different success rates at home and on the road. If the playoffs were to start today, 14 of the top 15 teams at home would make the playoffs (special thanks to the St Louis Blues for having a good home record but landing 12th in the west). Since some teams have played more games at home and other have played more on the road, we worked the figures to be points-per-game at home. A perfect home record would be 2 points per game.

10 Best Home Teams

	Team	Conf	Games Played	Home Games Played	Home Game Points	Pts Per Game (Home)	Home Games Left	Proj Home Pts	Proj Total Pts
1	LA	West	32	14	23	1.64	27	67	104
2	TBL	East	33	14	22	1.57	27	64	108
3	DAL	West	34	17	26	1.53	24	63	109
4	VAN	West	31	16	24	1.50	25	62	111
5	WAS	East	36	20	29	1.45	21	59	98
6	DET	West	32	19	27	1.42	22	58	112
7	NAS	West	32	15	21	1.40	26	57	103
8	STL	West	33	16	22	1.38	25	56	93
9	MTL	East	34	19	26	1.37	22	56	94
10	COL	West	34	16	21	1.31	25	54	102

Something interesting is the difference between teams that are good at home and teams that are good on the road. Take the Los Angeles Kings for example. They’re the best team in the league at home; yet they’re only 22nd in the league on the road. In fact, they have the biggest gap between home and road productivity. These are the teams that are significantly better at home as opposed to the road.

	Team	Conf	Games Played	Pts Per Game (Home)	Pts Per Game (Away)	Home Games Left	Proj Home Pts	Diff (Home & Away Pts Per Gm)
1	LA	West	32	1.64	0.89	27	67	0.75
2	TBL	East	33	1.57	1.05	27	64	0.52
3	WAS	East	36	1.45	0.94	21	59	0.51
4	STL	West	33	1.38	0.88	25	56	0.49
5	TOR	East	33	1.06	0.60	23	43	0.46
6	CGY	West	35	1.13	0.68	25	46	0.44
7	MTL	East	34	1.37	0.93	22	56	0.44
8	ANA	West	38	1.28	0.85	23	52	0.43
9	DAL	West	34	1.53	1.12	24	63	0.41
10	NJ	East	33	0.80	0.44	26	33	0.36

Of course, the flipside of great home records is analysis of the road records. If a team can be productive on the road (where it’s much more difficult to win), conventional wisdom tells us these are teams capable of winning anywhere. These are teams that—whether they’re at the top of the league or not— have shown they have the potential to win difficult games in difficult atmospheres. After all, good teams are supposed to win at home. Great teams are the ones that expect to win on the road.

10 Best Road Teams

	Team	Conf	Games Played	Away Games Played	Away Games Points	Pts Per Game (Away)	Away Games Left	Proj Away Pts	Proj Total Pts
1	PHI	East	35	15	23	1.53	26	63	116
2	PIT	East	34	16	23	1.44	25	59	111
3	NYR	East	35	18	24	1.33	23	55	96
4	DET	West	32	13	17	1.31	28	54	112
5	BOS	East	32	15	19	1.27	26	52	98
6	ATL	East	36	17	21	1.24	24	51	98
T7	VAN	West	31	15	18	1.20	26	49	111
T7	CLB	West	33	15	18	1.20	26	49	92
9	CHI	West	35	16	19	1.19	25	49	92
T10	COL	West	34	18	21	1.17	23	48	102
T10	PHX	West	32	18	21	1.17	23	48	95

Not surprisingly, 3 of the 4 best teams in the league are also the best teams on the road. Interestingly enough, both of the streaking Pennsylvanian teams have been much better on the road than they have been in the familiar confines of their home arenas.

	Team	Conf	Games Played	Pts Per Game (Home)	Pts Per Game (Away)	Away Games Left	Proj Away Pts	Diff (Away & Home Pts Per Gm)
1	NYR	East	35	1.00	1.33	23	55	0.33
2	PHI	East	35	1.30	1.53	26	63	0.23
3	PIT	East	34	1.28	1.44	25	59	0.16
4	BOS	East	32	1.12	1.27	26	52	0.15
5	CLB	West	33	1.06	1.20	26	49	0.14
6	CHI	West	35	1.05	1.19	25	49	0.13
7	ATL	East	36	1.16	1.24	24	51	0.08
8	EDM	West	32	0.88	0.94	25	38	0.06
9	PHX	West	32	1.14	1.17	23	48	0.02
10	MIN	West	32	1.06	1.07	26	44	0.01

Not only are these the Top 10 teams in regards to road vs. home records, but these are also the only teams that have better records on the road. The rest of the NHL teams are better at home.

It’s striking to look at the New York Rangers and their Jekyll/Hyde-like personality away from Manhattan. Away from the Big Apple they look like one of the best teams in the league; but in New York, their record is pedestrian at best. The Rangers could be really good if they could figure out how to win at Madison Square Garden. Keep that in mind when you’re looking at sleeper teams to make a move in the 2nd half of the season. It’s a lot easier to learn how to win at home than it is to learn how to win on the road. If that holds true, the Rangers could make a push later this year.

Matt Reitz

Matt Reitz is the Editor-In-Chief here at ViewFromMySeats.com and former NHL Writer for ProHockeyTalk on NBCSports. When he’s not shoving a mic in the face of NHLers or explaining why home teams should wear white, he’s usually trying to figure out what song to play next on his iPod. It’s a never-ending job.

Mid-Season Projections and Analysis