With the All-Star break almost upon us, teams (and fans) are starting to gear up for the home stretch. Some fans will hold onto hope for failing teams far longer than they should; and stressed out fans will stress far longer than they should for teams who will easily make the playoffs. Either way, fans could use a guide to find out exactly how well they need their team to do down the stretch. After all, some players already have an idea of what they need to do.
To give a little perspective, we put together some of the projected records teams will need down the stretch to make the playoffs. Obviously, these are PROJECTIONS and things can trend in a different direction. But at this point in time, this is where each and every team stands.
If current winning percentages were to hold for the rest of the season (a dicey concept to be sure), it would take 89 points to get into the playoffs in the East and 92 points to make the playoffs in the West. Here’s a quick rundown of how many points it’s taken to make the playoffs in each conference since the lockout. (Note: When we talk about the number of points needed to make the playoffs, we mean 1 point more than 9th place.)
| Since Lockout | East | West |
| 2009-10 | 88 | 91 |
| 2008-09 | 93* | 90 |
| 2007-08 | 93 | 89 |
| 2006-07 | 92 | 96 |
| 2005-06 | 91 | 93 |
| Average | 91.4 | 92 |
*In 2008-09, Montreal and Florida both had 93 points, only Montreal made playoffs while the Panthers finished in 9th.
If these projections hold, here are the records each team will need down the stretch to make the playoffs. To give perspective, we included each team’s current winning percentage, along with the winning percentage they’d need, as well. It shows just how much better some teams on the outside will have to play just to make it to the 8th spot.
Eastern Conference
| Team | Record Needed For Playoffs | Winning % Needed to Make Playoffs | Current Winning % | |||
| W | L | OT | ||||
| 1 | Philadelphia | 10 | 23 | 0 | 0.303 | 0.704 |
| 2 | Pittsburgh | 12 | 20 | 1 | 0.379 | 0.653 |
| 3 | Tampa Bay | 12 | 20 | 0 | 0.375 | 0.650 |
| 4 | Boston | 14 | 20 | 0 | 0.412 | 0.635 |
| 5 | Washington | 13 | 19 | 1 | 0.409 | 0.633 |
| 6 | Montreal | 15 | 18 | 0 | 0.455 | 0.602 |
| 7 | NY Rangers | 15 | 17 | 0 | 0.469 | 0.590 |
| 8 | Carolina | 18 | 15 | 1 | 0.544 | 0.542 |
| 9 | Atlanta | 17 | 14 | 0 | 0.548 | 0.539 |
| 10 | Buffalo | 20 | 14 | 0 | 0.588 | 0.510 |
| 11 | Florida | 21 | 14 | 0 | 0.600 | 0.500 |
| 12 | Toronto | 23 | 12 | 0 | 0.657 | 0.457 |
| 13 | Ottawa | 24 | 9 | 0 | 0.727 | 0.418 |
| 14 | NY Islanders | 26 | 9 | 0 | 0.743 | 0.394 |
| 15 | New Jersey | 27 | 7 | 0 | 0.794 | 0.365 |
Western Conference
| Team |
Record Needed For Playoffs | Winning % Needed to Make Playoffs | Current Winning % | |||
| W | L | OT | ||||
| 1 | Vancouver | 12 | 21 | 1 | 0.368 | 0.698 |
| 2 | Detroit | 14 | 20 | 0 | 0.412 | 0.667 |
| 3 | Dallas | 14 | 19 | 1 | 0.426 | 0.656 |
| 4 | Nashville | 16 | 18 | 0 | 0.471 | 0.625 |
| 5 | Phoenix | 17 | 15 | 1 | 0.530 | 0.582 |
| 6 | Chicago | 18 | 15 | 0 | 0.545 | 0.571 |
| 7 | Anaheim | 17 | 14 | 0 | 0.548 | 0.569 |
| 8 | Colorado | 19 | 15 | 0 | 0.559 | 0.563 |
| 9 | San Jose | 18 | 14 | 1 | 0.561 | 0.561 |
| 10 | Minnesota | 19 | 14 | 1 | 0.574 | 0.552 |
| 11 | St Louis | 20 | 14 | 1 | 0.586 | 0.543 |
| 12 | Los Angeles | 20 | 13 | 1 | 0.603 | 0.531 |
| 13 | Columbus | 20 | 13 | 1 | 0.603 | 0.531 |
| 14 | Calgary | 21 | 12 | 0 | 0.636 | 0.510 |
| 15 | Edmonton | 28 | 7 | 0 | 0.800 | 0.383 |
We’ll release these numbers again at the trade deadline to give an example of the teams that should be buying and the teams that should be selling. Things can change from week to week, this is to serve as a snapshot of the league right around the All-Star break.
Matt Reitz is the Editor-In-Chief here at ViewFromMySeats.com and former NHL Writer for ProHockeyTalk on NBCSports. When he’s not shoving a mic in the face of NHLers or explaining why home teams should wear white, he’s usually trying to figure out what song to play next on his iPod. It’s a never-ending job.
